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LU9DCE > NEWS 25.07.26 13:33l 454 Lines 19044 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18410_LU9DCE
Read: OE5RCO GAST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 25-JUL
Path: DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OK1TOR<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VE2JOS<VE2REX<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260725/1045Z 18410@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT JUL 25 08:48:01 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SAT JUL 25 08:48:01 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT JUL 25 08:48:01 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SAT JUL 25 08:48:01 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC JUL 25, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL MT...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF SD...
...SUMMARY...
STORMS WITH SCATTERED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...MT INTO SD AND VICINITY...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FROM MT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITHIN THE HOT AND WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN A BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL. 5% WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL, WITH 15% WIND PROBABILITIES (EQUIVALENT TO
CATEGORICAL LEVEL 2/SLIGHT RISK) ADDED ACROSS PARTS OF MT AND SD,
WHERE TERRAIN FEATURES MAY ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE WITHIN THE
FAVORABLE SEVERE-WIND ENVIRONMENT.
FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MT, CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO THE HOT AND WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THIS CONVECTION
MAY BE AIDED BY A LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. INCREASING STORM COVERAGE
AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR ONE
OR MORE OUTFLOW-DRIVEN CLUSTERS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH A THREAT OF SEVERE
GUSTS. LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 75+ MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF
DEEPER CONVECTION IS ABLE TO SPREAD INTO AREAS WHERE VERY DEEP
MIXING AND HEATING TO NEAR/ABOVE 100 F OCCURS PRIOR TO STORM
ARRIVAL.
FARTHER EAST, VERY STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD, WITH TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS POTENTIALLY
RISING TO NEAR/ABOVE 105 F. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY
SPARSE, BUT MLCAPE OF NEAR/ABOVE 1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
50S F DEWPOINTS CAN BE MAINTAINED WITHIN THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT.
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD, WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
OF SEVERE GUSTS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, AND SOME GUIDANCE DEPICTS DEVELOPMENT OF A
PERSISTENT CLUSTER OR LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS THAT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS SD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, A
CORRIDOR OF MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE-WIND THREAT (WITH GUSTS
POTENTIALLY NEAR/ABOVE 75 MPH) WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...NORTHERN/EASTERN MN INTO WI AND UPPER MI...
CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS EVIDENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING STORM COVERAGE AND TIMING
REMAINS VERY LOW WITHIN THE WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. MODERATE TO
STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF A SURFACE FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHERN MN/WI BY
LATE AFTERNOON. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 50+ KT WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT MOST GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER
MUTED REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THEN A THREAT
FOR HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO COULD EVOLVE. EVEN
IF DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIMITED, VIGOROUS ELEVATED STORMS
MAY EVOLVE WITHIN A WARM-ADVECTION REGIME NEAR/NORTH OF THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MORE THAN
LEVEL-1/MARGINAL RISK EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
...NORTHEAST NV/NORTHERN UT INTO EASTERN ID...
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NV, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THESE
STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ID AND NORTHWEST
UT WITH TIME. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH A WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT.
...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ...
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH INITIAL DOWNBURST POTENTIAL. MODEST ENHANCEMENT
TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY
ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS TO SPREAD WESTWARD INTO
PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ, BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT.
..DEAN/SQUITIERI.. 07/25/2026
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 25, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
A DOMINANT UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO
CENTRAL CANADA. WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, A BELT OF
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE OH
VALLEY. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE STREAM OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM FLOW, THE MOST NOTABLE OF
WHICH IS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
SK/MB. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM FROM THAT FEATURE
FROM NORTHERN MN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, A COOL FRONT ATTENDING THE SK/MB SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ND-MN RED RIVER VALLEY. A
WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN PARTS OF MN AND WI
BEFORE STALLING, WHILE A SEPARATE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY.
...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MISSOURI
AND OHIO VALLEYS...
CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE SUBTLE NATURE OF
MECHANISMS TO SUSTAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION, AREAL COVERAGE, AND INTENSITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING SAID, A FEW
EARLY-DAY THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND AIDED BY THE GLANCING INFLUENCE
OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITHIN A PLUME OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR, SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
BY AFTERNOON, A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH THE VARIOUS MODELS INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT VARIOUS
LOCATIONS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO LOWER MI. CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ONE SCENARIO REMAINS LOW, AND AS SUCH, A MODEST EXPANSION OF THE
LEVEL 1/MARGINAL RISK WAS MADE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE BROAD RANGE OF POTENTIAL OUTCOMES. GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND SEASONABLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR, HIGHER SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES AND RELATED CONDITIONAL INTENSITY GROUPS MAY
BECOME NECESSARY ONCE FORECAST DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
AS ALLUDED TO IN THE SYNOPSIS, STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT TIED TO
THE APPROACHING CANADIAN DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT MAY SUPPORT A
MORE FOCUSED AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MN SUNDAY NIGHT.
SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS APPEARS
POSSIBLE, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF SEVERE
WIND GUSTS.
...SOUTHEAST...
ONE OR MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
IN RESPONSE, A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS UPSTATE SC, ALONG
A SUBTLE FRONT/CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITHIN A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSES AND
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WILL ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL
WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
..MEAD.. 07/25/2026
READ MORE
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SPC JUL 25, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50+ KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THAT UPPER-AIR
SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE U.P. AND NORTHERN LOWER
MI INTO SOUTHWEST ON DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY.
...GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING FORCING/DCVA DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND SEASONABLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST AT THE OUTSET OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND AS SUCH, THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A SUBSET OF THE EARLY-DAY
STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE MCSS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT, LEADING TO A CORRIDOR OF MORE
FOCUSED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM LOWER MI INTO IN AND OH, AND
POSSIBLY PARTS OF KY AND WV MONDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY INTO MID/LOWER MO VALLEY, STRONGER CAPPING AND WEAKER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE, POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM
ORGANIZATION; HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND POTENTIALLY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGESTS A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 07/25/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 25, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAY 4/TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST ON INTO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH AN ATTENDING BELT OF 35-45 KT MID-LEVEL
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
AT THE SURFACE, A CYCLONE WILL REMAIN VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE
UPPER LOW, WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE UPPER OH
AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, CAROLINAS, AND GULF COAST
STATES. A LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ALONG THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG) ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET. THAT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM NY
AND PA INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IN THOSE AREAS. STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING
APPEARS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE, WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH FROM THE
DELMARVA INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND VA/NC PIEDMONT. THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME.
...DAY 5/WEDNESDAY...
THE DAY 4/TUESDAY UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST
WITH A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS OVERSPREADING NEW ENGLAND. A
SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM
WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THAT FEATURE AND A TRAILING
FRONT SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND MAY
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE, WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE SLIGHT SHEAR
ENHANCEMENT, MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG A FRONTAL
ZONE IN THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN BOTH AREAS
PRECLUDES THE DELINEATION OF A 15% PROBABILITY CONTOUR.
...DAYS 6-8/THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING
THE RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER HIGH FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE LOWER CO VALLEY. A CONCURRENT WEAKENING AND BROADENING OF THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS ALSO FORECAST. THERE IS A MODEL SIGNAL FOR A
STRONGER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO BC AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BY DAY 8/SATURDAY. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES TRACKING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MS VALLEY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF
SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN CURRENTLY
APPEARS UNSUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS TODAY.
A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW, ACCOMPANIED BY EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES, WILL TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
OVERSPREAD THE WEST COAST TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS BELT OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE
OF WILDFIRE SPREAD, WITH DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED
IMPULSES ALSO SUPPORTING DRY THUNDERSTORM INITIATION, ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF MONTANA.
...PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX UPWARD TO THE
MID-LEVELS, ALLOWING FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. BY AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING, SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXCEEDING 20 MPH
SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD, ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN FAVORING AREAS, FROM
THE NORTHERN SIERRA TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FIFTEEN PERCENT RH
SHOULD BE COMMON BY AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING, OVERLAPPING WITH MANY
AREAS EXPERIENCING 20+ MPH SUSTAINED WINDS, WARRANTING WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS GIVEN DRY FUELS.
...PORTIONS OF MONTANA...
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS (INCLUDING HIGH-RESOLUTION MEMBERS) DEPICTS AT
LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA BY
AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CLASSIC INVERTED-V PROFILES EXTENDING UP TO 500 MB,
AMID APPRECIABLE FLOW ALOFT. AS SUCH, FAST-MOVING AND HIGH-BASED
STORMS WILL PROMOTE DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER FUEL BEDS RECEPTIVE
TO FIRE SPREAD, WARRANTING ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS.
FURTHERMORE, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE, AND GIVEN APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY ALOFT, SEVERAL OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS, WHICH MAY EXACERBATE
ANY ONGOING FIRES OR HOLDOVERS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST DAY 1
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/25/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTANA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO
THE HARNEY BASIN...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS TOMORROW (SUNDAY). A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND PIVOT CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SUPPORTING DRY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE. AS THIS FLOW IS MIXED DOWNWARD TO THE
SURFACE BY A DEEP AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON AREAS,
WIDESPREAD 15+ MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
COMMON. GIVEN RH DIPPING TO AT LEAST 20 PERCENT, WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
HIGHLIGHTS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED, FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOCALLY STRONGER SURFACE WIND
FIELDS, ATOP DRY FUELS, OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MONTANA AND THE
NORTHERN SIERRA TO HARNEY BASIN. OVER BOTH OF THESE AREAS, 15
PERCENT RH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS,
WARRANTING CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS.
..SQUITIERI.. 07/25/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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