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LU9DCE > NEWS 30.07.26 13:33l 413 Lines 16791 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18768_LU9DCE
Read: OE5RCO GAST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 30-JUL
Path: DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OK1TOR<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<VE2JOS<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260730/1045Z 18768@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU JUL 30 08:39:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU JUL 30 08:39:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU JUL 30 08:39:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU JUL 30 08:39:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC JUL 30, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF
COAST.
...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
AT MID-LEVELS, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT, MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S F WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOIST AIRMASS BY LATE
MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT AROUND
MIDDAY WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MCS DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM HURON, SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWARD TO
NEAR GRAND ISLAND, NEBRASKA HAVE MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A MIXED MODE INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND
SEVERE LINE SEGMENTS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY CELL OR LINE THAT CAN BECOME INTENSE IN AREAS THAT
DESTABILIZE THE MOST. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
TO MID EVENING AS A RELATIVELY LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
FURTHER WEST INTO PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS, POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK IN THESE AREAS, TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING
WILL AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION. IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
...EASTERN GULF COAST...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT,
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES DURING THE DAY
NEAR THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES/SQUITIERI.. 07/30/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 30, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM IOWA SOUTHWARD
INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU, AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES, MAINLY IN MISSOURI.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO MID MO VALLEY FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH A BELT OF 30-35
KT WINDS FORECAST WITHIN THE WESTERN THROUGH SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THAT FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO SLIGHT DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING FROM NORTHWEST OR CENTRAL
IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INTO SOUTHERN IL BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU.
...LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU...
MAINLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
AT 12Z FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA AND MO WITHIN A ZONE OF FORCING
FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM, AND WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THOSE MECHANISMS
ARE LIKELY TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, MAINLY ACROSS IL. IN THE WAKE OF
THE EARLY-DAY STORMS AND WHERE CLOUD BREAKS CAN OCCUR, DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2500+ J/KG.
ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY- TO
MID AFTERNOON INITIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OR
SOUTHEAST IA WITH SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS MO. THE 00Z CAMS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL STORM
MODE WILL BE SEMI-DISCRETE, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL FORECASTS
OF 30-35 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED LARGELY PERPENDICULAR
TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY.
WHILE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES, WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
CONSIDERABLE MELTING, POTENTIALLY LIMITING THAT THREAT. DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED BY STORM MODE WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
THREAT BEING DEPENDENT ON UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS OR A
COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS. TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
TO THE EAST OF THE PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS. THAT BEING SAID, A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH: 1)
STORMS FORMING NEAR OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW, SHOULD
MODEST LOW-LEVEL CAPE DEVELOP IN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY ENHANCED
VERTICAL VORTICITY, AND 2) ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND MOVE EAST INTO THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FORECAST
ACROSS EASTERN MO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
GIVEN THE ABOVE UNCERTAINTIES, A LEVEL 1/MARGINAL RISK WILL BE
MAINTAINED WITH THIS FORECAST.
...COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO...
INITIALLY NORTHERLY, POST-FRONTAL WINDS FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO SWITCH TO NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST BY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING,
SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FAVORED
TERRAIN. MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL COINCIDE WITH
30-35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WITH TIME,
STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP,
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NM
FRIDAY EVENING WHERE THE MERGING OF THE TERRAIN-INDUCED STORMS AND
COLD-FRONTAL STORMS COULD ORGANIZE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL.
..MEAD.. 07/30/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 30, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...AND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, AND OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU SATURDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE LOWER OH
AND THE LOWER MS VALLEYS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVELS,
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST-CENTRAL IL
TO THE VICINITY OF THE IN/KY BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE LOWER MS AND THE TN
VALLEYS.
...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH, TN, AND
LOWER MS VALLEYS. A SUBSET OF THAT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
INTO AFTERNOON WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR, AIDED BY HEIGHT
FALLS ALOFT, WARM ADVECTION, AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG A 25-35 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ). ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE MORE PERSISTENT
STORMS, CLOUD BREAKS MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER HEATING OF A MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, YIELDING A POTENTIALLY NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF
GREATER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION, GENERALLY FROM CENTRAL KY AND
MIDDLE TN INTO MS, AL, AND POTENTIALLY WESTERN GA. WHILE THE
STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE WARM SECTOR, MAINLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER, AN AREA OF STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY AND TN, COINCIDENT
WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE LLJ. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS;
HOWEVER, SOME TORNADO THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE FROM PORTIONS OF IN
AND OH INTO MIDDLE TN WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO...
THERE IS SOME MODEL SIGNAL FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO
PROGRESS SOUTH WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH ON
SATURDAY. THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THAT FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE UPSLOPE FLOW OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
GENERATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FAVORED TERRAIN. WHILE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
..MEAD.. 07/30/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUL 30, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VALID 021200Z - 071200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAYS 4 AND 5/SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSING
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO OZARK PLATEAU MAY DISRUPT THE ADVECTION OF A MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT, WHICH,
COMBINED WITH THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF AN EML PLUME, WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT BOTH
AFTERNOONS.
ON SUNDAY, THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD
VORTICITY LOBE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SK AND MB WITH CAPPING
TO THE SOUTH OF THAT FEATURE POTENTIALLY LIMITING STORM COVERAGE
ALONG THE FRONT IN ND. ON THE CONDITION THAT STORMS DEVELOP, THE
PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, OH VALLEY, AND GULF COAST STATES.
ON MONDAY, A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SUPPORTING A POTENTIALLY
GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY.
...DAYS 6 THROUGH 8/TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE
LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES ON TUESDAY
WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS JUXTAPOSED WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE UPSLOPE REGIME.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A
MODESTLY ENHANCED BELT OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ACROSS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT AIR STREAM. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION
AND EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND EXPAND FROM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, BUT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH MONSOONAL MOISTURE REMAINS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BUT A DRYING TREND CONTINUES.
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM
CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO INTO WESTERN MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AN ISODRYT AREA HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AS PROBABILITIES OF
RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.1" OF RAIN IS LESS THAN 50%. SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE ISODRYT AREA WERE TRIMMED DUE TO SOME POCKETS OF RECENT
WETTING RAIN. THERE REMAINS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF STORMS DUE TO THE SMOKE THAT COULD INHIBIT
INSOLATION AND THUS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS THAT WOULD AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, A CLUSTER OF HIGH-BASED STORMS MAY
PERSIST OF OVERNIGHT IN PORTIONS WESTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA.
LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
INLAND NORTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
WEST-SOUTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
AMID MINIMUM RH OF 5-20% ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
..NAUSLAR.. 07/30/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHING FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF IT. A
WEAKER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE LARGER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOVE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BEFORE WEAKENING AMID THE BUILDING HEIGHTS.
MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY ALONG/EAST OF
THE DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO, WHILE STILL LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.
HOT, DRY, AND LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST, ESPECIALLY THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AHEAD OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED DRIER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES LESS THAN A
20% CHANCE AND MOSTLY LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WYOMING BUT
ARE LIKELY TO BE WETTER AND OVER LESS RECEPTIVE FUELS.
..NAUSLAR.. 07/30/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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