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VA2OM > SOLAR 15.06.26 11:34l 76 Lines 3446 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10934_VE2PKT
Subj: Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Path: DB0FFL<DB0FHN<DB0RKB<DK0WUE<IW2OHX<GB7OSW<VE3CGR<VE1LG<VE2PKT
Sent: 260615/0913Z 10934@VE2PKT.#TRV.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Jun 15 0248 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 - 14 June 2026
Solar activity was at low levels the entire period, with only
C-class flares observed. There were five flares at or above the C5
level, with all but one originating from Region 4465 (N09, L=292,
class/area=Dhi/255 on 11 Jun). These included: a C7.2 at 09/0249
UTC, a C6.7/1f at 11/0026 UTC, a C9.0 at 11/0828 UTC (the largest of
the period), and finally a C5.2 flare at 12/0214 UTC. The only other
flare greater than C5 was a C6.1 flare at 11/0044 UTC from Region
4456 (N17, L=63, class/area=Dai/80 on 08 Jun).
Additional activity included a type-II radio sweep at 09/1557 UTC,
with an estimated velocity of 917 km/s, likely associated with
low-level C-class flaring from Region 4463 (N16, L=339,
class/area=Hsx/70 on 10 Jun). An associated CME was first observed
in the NE quadrant of LASCO/C2 around 09/1630 UTC, which correlated
to an eruption near (and south of) Region 4463. Analysis suggested
glancing effects near-Earth on 13-14 June. A second type-II sweep
(est. velocity = 1,127 km/s) was detected by the RSTN stations at
10/1715 UTC. An associated CME was first observed in the NE quadrant
in LASCO/C2 imagery at 10/1800 UTC, with modeling and analysis
indicating no Earth-directed component was likely. The third and
final type-II sweep of the period was associated with the C6.7/1f
flare from Region 4465 observed at 11/0002 UTC, and had an estimated
velocity of 918 km/s. Additionally, a type-IV radio sweep and a
partial halo CME were observed, with analysis indicating potential
impact near-Earth starting early on 13 Jun.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 08-10 and 13-14 Jun, with a peak flux of 4,259 pfu at
09/1525 UTC. Flux levels were low to moderate on 11-12 Jun.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels on 08-10
and 14 Jun under nominal conditions. Active to G1 (Minor) storm
conditions were observed on 11 Jun with unsettled to active
conditions observed on 12-13 Jun under negative polarity coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences, combined with weak CME
effects, likely associated with the CME that left the Sun on 09 Jun.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 June - 11 July 2026
Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels through 19
Jun, with increasing chances for M-class activity after 20 Jun with
the anticipated return of Region 4455 (N14, L=88, class/area=Dki/360
on 03 Jun)
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring
siginifcant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 15-17 Jun and 04-10 Jul. Normal to
moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of
the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on 15, 17-24, and 26-30 Jun, as well as 01-02, 04-07, and
10-11 Jul. Active conditions are likely on 16, and 25 Jun and 03,
08, and 09 Jul under elevated CH HSS influence.
73 de VA2OM, SYSOP of VE2PKT
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