| |
HP2DFA > STORM 12.09.26 03:10l 34 Lines 2958 Bytes #58 (0) @ WW
BID : 1883_HP2DFA
Read: GAST
Subj: 7D TROPICAL/PACIFIC OUTLOOK CENTRAL AMERICA SEP12
Path: DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OK1TOR<OK0NAG<F3KT<F1UBL<DK0WUE<N2MH4<GB7BED<EI2GYB<
PY2BIL<HP2DFA
Sent: 260912/0001Z 1883@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
The 7-day tropical outlook for [Central America](https://www.google.com/search?kgmid=/m/01tzh) is defined by an extraordinary contrast: an unprecedentedly historic lull across the Atlantic basin contrasted against active, far-offshore developments in the Eastern Pacific. Under the prevailing influence of a robust El Niño, the mainland faces no immediate threat of a tropical cyclone landfall over the next week. However, deep ambient moisture from the monsoonal trough will maintain high local instability. [1, 2, 3, 4]
The official [NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php) outlook details the split dynamics: [1]
## 🌊 Atlantic & Caribbean Basin: Historically Quiet
*
* 7-Day Cyclone Potential: 0aNo development expected). [1, 5]
* Current Status: As of September 11, 2026, the Atlantic basin has set an all-time modern record for the latest date without generating a single hurricane. The [NHC 7-Day Graphical Outlook Map](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) shows zero active areas of concern near the Caribbean coastlines of Central America. [1, 2, 5, 6]
* The Driver: Strong El Niño conditions are producing severe vertical wind shear across the Caribbean Sea, consistently ripping apart incoming tropical waves and suppressing cyclogenesis. [2, 7]
*
## â˜€ï¸ Eastern Pacific Basin: Active but Moving Away
*
* Active Systems: The NHC is actively tracking Tropical Storm Norbert, positioned several hundred miles west-southwest of Baja California. [8]
* 7-Day Cyclone Potential: Two distinct areas of interest are being monitored well offshore. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Guatemala and El Salvador coastlines has a medium (50échance of 48-hour formation and a high (80échance over the next 7 days as it tracks west-northwestward. [4]
* Mainland Impact: All tracked systems and emerging low-pressure zones are being guided by steering winds westward and away from the Central American istmo. They pose no direct threat to land. [3, 4]
*
## â›ˆï¸ Central American Mainland Weather & Hazards
While organized tropical landfalls are absent, the active Monsoonal Trough and localized low-pressure extensions parallel to the coast will fuel severe local convective patterns: [4]
*
* Daily Patterns: Typical wet-season high energy. Extremely humid mornings with high solar radiation will give way to explosive afternoon and evening thunderstorms across mountain slopes and valley passes.
* Saturated Soils: Because September is a climatological peak for rainfall, soils across the region are highly saturated. Emergency management agencies maintain watches for flash flooding, localized wind damage, and mudslides along crucial highway networks.
*
------------------------------
Sistema de Monitoreo de Alertas Meteorologicas de Panama
PCARA - Grupo Digital C4FM Panama
www.pcara.net - www.c4fmpanama.org
HP2DFA@HP2DFA.COL.PA.CEAM
Lese vorherige Mail | Lese naechste Mail
| |
