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LU9DCE > NEWS 08.06.26 21:03l 609 Lines 23749 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 15347_LU9DCE
Read: OE5RCO GAST
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 08-JUN
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Sent: 260608/1045Z 15347@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286
WW 286 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 080550Z - 081300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 1250 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN, BUT
HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF TULSA
OK TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF HARRISON AR. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
27025.
...HART
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0286 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 286
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..WENDT..06/08/26
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 286
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-087-143-080840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL MADISON
WASHINGTON
KSC021-037-080840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
MOC009-011-043-057-077-097-109-119-145-209-213-080840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON CHRISTIAN
DADE GREENE JASPER
LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON
STONE TANEY
READ MORE
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON JUN 8 08:49:08 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF MON JUN 8 08:49:08 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC JUN 8, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND
GUSTS POTENTIALLY ABOVE 70 MPH, AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...FRONT RANGE INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS A LOW
DEEPENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DURING THE AFTERNOON, AN AXIS OF
MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO, ALONG WHICH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE BY EARLY
EVENING.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE MLCAPE PEAKING AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 55
KNOTS. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 8.5 C/KM.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL, AND HAILSTONES GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY ROTATING STORMS
THAT CAN BECOME INTENSE. IN ADDITION, 0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY
IS FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 200 M2/S2 OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO
THREAT. AS A CLUSTER MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
ORGANIZATION INTO A LINE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 70 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
...GREAT PLAINS...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY
FROM THE UPPER 60S F INTO THE MID 70S F. THIS WILL ENABLE A POCKET
OF STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
FROM NEAR THE INSTABILITY MAX WESTWARD, MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. A CELL OR TWO IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE STRONG
INSTABILITY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE INSTABILITY MAX AT 21Z HAVE MLCAPE
NEAR 4000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS, AND 700-500 MB
LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY ALSO
SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION, THE
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A POTENTIAL FOR HAILSTONES
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70 MPH WITH
THE MORE INTENSE ROTATING CELLS.
...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ALONG THIS AXIS, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
TODAY, AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM IN EASTERN MONTANA
TONIGHT, AS UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MAXIMIZED
LATE IN THE PERIOD, WHICH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. INSTABILITY, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT, MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z
TUESDAY MORNING.
..BROYLES/SUPINIE.. 06/08/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUN 8, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...
...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NIGHT. VERY LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG, AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH SIGNIFICANT GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY.
FARTHER SOUTH, WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH SIGNIFICANT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL, MORE ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY
MORNING WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PLAINS, AHEAD OF A
MORE SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAKS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED DEVELOP FROM SOUTHEAST MT
INTO NORTHWEST ND DURING THE DAY, ALONG A PACIFIC FRONT OR
DRYLINE-LIKE BOUNDARY SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A BOUNDARY INITIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN SD INTO
NORTHWEST MN WILL RETREAT NORTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A
WARM FRONT. ELSEWHERE, A DIFFUSE WARM OR QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
RESIDE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MO VALLEY INTO MID MS VALLEY.
...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE RETURN SOUTH OF WARM
FRONT AND BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WITH
MLCAPE INCREASING TO 2500-3500+ J/KG BY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
POLEWARD EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO LEAD
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS.
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO 40-50 KT AT A SUBSTANTIAL ANGLE TO
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAPID EVOLUTION INTO SUPERCELLS,
WHICH COULD INITIALLY BE A BIT HIGHER BASED, GIVEN INITIATION ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF RICHER, BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE EAST INTO AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND MORE STRONGLY SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LARGE, CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS
WITH SUBSTANTIAL SRH. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT
THE PREDOMINANT STORM MODE WILL BE DURING THE TIME OF THE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AMPLIFICATION. AS SUCH, THIS FORECAST WILL INCLUDE A 10%
UNCONDITIONAL TORNADO PROBABILITY WITH A CONDITIONAL INTENSITY GROUP
ONE. HIGHER VALUES MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN A SUSTAINED DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE STORM
MODE.
AT SOME POINT, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS ALONG
COALESCING STORM-SCALE COOL POOLS, SIGNALING AN INCREASING DAMAGING
WIND RISK ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE
UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS, WHICH RESULTS
IN MEANINGFUL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREADING THE DRYLINE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF NE AND KS,
PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS NORTHEAST NM. INITIAL STORMS WILL FORM
IN A HOT, DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. INITIALLY MARGINAL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF
HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
THERE IS SOME MODEL SUGGESTION THAT THE INITIAL HIGH-BASED STORMS
MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THAT PROGRESSES FROM CENTRAL NE AND NORTHERN
KS THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FORECAST ALONG THE PATH OF THE MCS, THE POTENTIAL
WOULD EXIST FOR A SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGING WIND EVENT, INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF INTENSE WIND GUSTS. CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS
LOW, WHICH PRECLUDES THE ADDITION OF HIGHER UNCONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER, A CONDITIONAL INTENSITY GROUP ONE HAS BEEN
ADDED TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF SUCH AN EVENT.
...MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OR
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ORIENTED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. STORM COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WHICH PRECLUDES HIGHER
UNCONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES. NONETHELESS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXISTS WITH ANY STORMS THAT
CAN BECOME SUSTAINED IN THAT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
..MEAD.. 06/08/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUN 8, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...MUCH OF WISCONSIN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA...AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT. MORE SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SIMILARLY TIMED, BUT SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY, IN TANDEM WITH A 50-60+ KT JET
STREAK. MEANWHILE, A STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A
FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL MN
BY AFTERNOON, WHERE IT MAY LINK WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING
INTO CENTRAL WI. THE TRAILING EXTENSION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS THE MID OR LOWER MO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING
OF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MID/LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY...
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY-LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WHICH COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY, WITH SUBSEQUENT,
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO IA AND THE LOWER MO
VALLEY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST, WITH
DECREASING BULK-SHEAR MAGNITUDES WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT BEING OFFSET
BY STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE WILL FAVOR
ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES.
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE INITIAL HAZARD, WITH THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES INCREASING AS STORMS MOVE
INTO WI, EASTERN IA, AND NORTHWEST IL, WHERE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS FORECAST.
ADDITIONAL, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY
INTO AT LEAST EASTERN KS. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL, THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STRONG UP/DOWNDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
A SEPARATE, ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM REGIME MAY MATERIALIZE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/EASTERN NE AND
NORTHERN KS AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A LARGE-HAIL THREAT.
..MEAD.. 06/08/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC JUN 8, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2026
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAY 4/THURSDAY...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES INTO OZARK PLATEAU, WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AND POTENTIALLY
MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AFFECTING PARTS OF THE MIDWEST.
WITHIN THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST
ONTARIO, THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE
PROGRESSION OF A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THERE IS SOME MODEL SIGNAL THAT A TRAILING PERTURBATION
ON THE IMMEDIATE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD
THE MID MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL IA INTO THE SOUTHERN UP OF MI DURING THE DAY,
ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF THAT BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER MO AND MID MS VALLEYS, WHILE
BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SPECIFIC
BOUNDARY LOCATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST MAY BE MODIFIED TO SOME EXTENT
FROM A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT, WHICH COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IS EXPECTED TO YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. THE
PRESENCE OF A 50-70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ATTENDING THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE, WITH VECTOR ORIENTATION BECOMING INCREASINGLY PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE-WEATHER EPISODE FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO MID MS VALLEY. THERE IS SOME MODEL SIGNAL THAT A
CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WI. THAT POTENTIAL SCENARIO WILL BE DICTATED BY
THE LOCATION OF THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
ADDITIONAL, MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST.
...DAY 5/FRIDAY...
A NUMBER OF THE 00Z MODELS PROGRESS A LOWER-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES, WHICH IS A
DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THAT SCENARIO WOULD INCREASE
SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS INTO NEW ENGLAND, AND
PERHAPS THE MID-ATLANTIC, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. SHOULD
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS RECENT TREND, AN
UNCONDITIONAL 15% PROBABILITY CONTOUR MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT
FORECAST UPDATE.
ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...DAY 6/SATURDAY...
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL
FLOW EXTENDING FROM SLIGHT TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THERE IS MORE SPREAD ACROSS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH RESPECT TO THE LONGITUDINAL POSITION OF
THAT TROUGH, AND THE POSITION OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. IN
GENERAL, IT APPEARS SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS
LOW.
...DAYS 7 AND 8/SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE ENSEMBLES INDICATE A GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN, FEATURING TROUGHING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE MS VALLEY, AND
UPSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE LOCATION OF ANY RELEVANT SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEMS REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, AS DOES THE LOCATION(S) OF ANY SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT
BASIN...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
WITH PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH A BELT OF STRONG FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DRY AIR MASS AND DRY FUELS ARE IN PLACE, LEADING
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK IN THESE AREAS
...SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
STRONG VERTICAL MIXING ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS TO 20-30 MPH AND RH NEAR 5-15% IN THE
AFTERNOON. FUELS IN THE AREA HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY DRY GENERALLY
WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY EXACERBATING THE DRY FUELS.
THEREFORE, A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK HAS BEEN MAINTAINED HERE.
...NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH A COMPACT JET MAX ALOFT
OVERLAPPING A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND FAST STORM
MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DRY. DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS, HAVE MAINTAINED AN ISOLATED DRY THUNDER AREA
HERE.
..SUPINIE.. 06/08/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
GREAT BASIN...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH A STRONG JET MAX MOVING IN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL RESULT
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
...SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN...
DIURNAL MIXING WITH STRONG (FOR THE SEASON) FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH RH OF
5-15% IN THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY MEANS
FUELS IN THIS AREA ARE CRITICALLY DRY. THEREFORE, HAVE INTRODUCED A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA HERE.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS...
STRONG WINDS (20-30 MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER) ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION ALONG WITH RH VALUES IN THE 10-15% RANGE WEST
OF A DRYLINE. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IN THIS REGION IS WITH THE
FUELS, AS MANY AREAS HAVE RECEIVED PRECIPITATION RECENTLY, AND SOME
MAY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WILL ADD
AN ELEVATED RISK IN THIS AREA, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK.
..SUPINIE.. 06/08/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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