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LU9DCE > NEWS 10.09.26 18:48l 368 Lines 15116 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21774_LU9DCE
Read: OE5RCO
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 10-SEP
Path: DB0FFL<DB0FHN<DB0RES<GB7CAM<F1UBL<K1AJD<LU9DCE
Sent: 260910/1616Z 21774@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
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SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU SEP 10 07:48:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF THU SEP 10 07:48:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU SEP 10 07:48:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF THU SEP 10 07:48:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC SEP 10, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
...SUMMARY...
SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PERHAPS
PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MS AND MID MO VALLEYS
THURSDAY MORNING WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY WITH A PRECEDING BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE, A VORTICITY MAXIMUM (POSSIBLE MCV)
IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS FROM WESTERN KS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF THE BOUNDARY SETTLING MORE SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY, OZARK PLATEAU, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE FRONT IS LIKELY TO BE MODULATED BY CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING FROM PORTIONS OF
THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...
TO THE SOUTH OF RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS AND LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, A HOT AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 F OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY, AND UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
FROM THE TN VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 C/KM, THE DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW/MID 70S WILL YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1500-2500+ J/KG.
THE 00Z MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MENTIONED IN THE
SYNOPSIS, AS WELL AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND ANY
EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND
FIELD AND RESULTANT VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN TO
THE NORTH OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER, 30-35 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST ALONG THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION
APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT FROM THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE OK-TX RED RIVER VALLEY; HOWEVER, THE PRESENCE OF A
RELATIVELY DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS.
...RATON MESA VICINITY...
UPSLOPE FLOW OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-8 C/KM WILL YIELD MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN
AMIDST A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH UP TO 30-35 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THE GIVEN ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORM MODES WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL.
..MEAD/CHALMERS.. 09/10/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 10, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
...NEBRASKA/EASTERN DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A BELT OF ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, PARTICULARLY FROM THE
DAKOTAS INTO MN/WI. COOLING ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT STEEPENING
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER IN WHICH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT 60S DEWPOINTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
AND SHIFT EAST ACROSS SD, WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST FROM NORTHWEST MN/EASTERN ND INTO CENTRAL SD NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SD THROUGH CENTRAL NE.
CORRIDORS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MN.
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS, INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL,
AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. SOME HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCH DIAMETER IS
POSSIBLE IF SUPERCELL MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED. GIVEN STRONG LINEAR
ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING, INITIAL SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CLUSTER AND/OR GROW UPSCALE INTO LINE OF CONVECTION SPREADING
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN, AND OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL MORE CONDITIONAL, WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO EASTERN SD/IA
AND CENTRAL NE. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER SOUTH, AND
THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC FOR OVERCOMING INHIBITION FROM WARMER
850-700 MB TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE IN NE OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
WHETHER STORMS DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT, SOME
SEVERE RISK FROM DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..LEITMAN.. 09/10/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 10, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0125 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE SHORTWAVE UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
PATTERN IS WILL KEEP ANY STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN KS BY MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA INTO NORTHERN
MO, WHILE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER
KS. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM KS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY WHILE A PLUME OF STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FROM CENTRAL
KS INTO SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MODEST, BUT
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP
WITHIN THE WEAKLY FORCED REGIME ALONG THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY ACROSS KS DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. IF THIS OCCURS, SOME POTENTIAL FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST.
..LEITMAN.. 09/10/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 10, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...DAYS 4-5/SUN-MON -- CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK. AN
INITIAL UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD EAST AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT EAST, MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY, BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WILL SUPPRESS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
THE MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER THE MIDDLE TO
LOWER MO VALLEY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, BUT STRONG INSTABILITY
COULD SOME STRONG GUST POTENTIAL, THOUGH CONVECTION MAY STAY MAINLY
TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. OVERALL, SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEYS. RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
IA/IL MONDAY MORNING. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN POSITION
OF BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY, THE BEST OVERLAP OF RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR NEAR
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE FROM EASTERN NE INTO IA AND
VICINITY. A 40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS KS/NE INTO IA, ORIENTED
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT, SUPPORTING AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND PROMOTING DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. OVERALL, THE PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY, AND A 15 PERCENT DELINEATION HAS
BEEN INCLUDED.
...DAYS 6-8/TUE-THU...
THE EARLY WEEK SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH MID-WEEK. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
PERSIST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, AND PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION COULD FAVOR BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN. WHILE SOME LOW-LEVEL
SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP WHERE POCKETS OF STRONG
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT
MORE WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL, PRECLUDING PROBABILITIES.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY. AT THE
SURFACE, BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL STRETCH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WHERE AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE
ELEVATED WINDS WILL SPAN A LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA, FUELS REMAIN MOST
RECEPTIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WHERE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN.
...EASTERN IDAHO, SOUTHERN MONTANA AND PORTIONS OF WYOMING...
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.
AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO AN EXPANDING SURFACE TROUGH THAT
STRETCHES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES REGION INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES. A DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHERE AFTERNOON RH IS LIKELY TO FALL INTO
THE 10-15% RANGE IN LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWING POOR
RECOVERIES IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN ID, PORTIONS OF WY, SOUTHERN MT AND
FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND WHERE FUELS REMAIN MOST RECEPTIVE. THE
OVERLAPPING WEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND LOW RH AMID DRY FUELS WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..WILLIAMS.. 09/10/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A PRONOUNCED PREFRONTAL TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD
SURGING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON D2/FRIDAY WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS.
ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS AND DOWNSLOPE DRYING AMID RECEPTIVE FUELS
WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.
...SOUTHEASTERN WY, SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA...
DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACCELERATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH D1/THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING
MID/UPPER WAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS SD. THE INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING THROUGH D2/FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHERE RH RECOVERIES OF 25% OR LESS ARE
MOST LIKELY FROM GIVEN LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE. WEST WINDS OF
15-20 MPH AND AFTERNOON RH REDUCTIONS IN THE 10-15% RANGE SOUTH OF
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WY, SOUTHWESTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN NE
AMID A RECEPTIVE FUELSCAPE.
..WILLIAMS.. 09/10/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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