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LU9DCE > NEWS 13.09.26 19:03l 353 Lines 14287 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22007_LU9DCE
Read: OE5RCO
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 13-SEP
Path: DB0FFL<CS5NRA<CQ0PAX<GB7CAM<VE3KPG<VE3CGR<LU9DCE
Sent: 260913/1615Z 22007@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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PACKET RADIO STATION - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
PYTHON SCHEDULED NEWSLETTERS (PSN)
COPYRIGHT 2026 - EDUARDO A. CASTILLO
+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC - NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN SEP 13 08:25:02 UTC 2026
NO WATCHES ARE VALID AS OF SUN SEP 13 08:25:02 UTC 2026.
========================================
SPC - NO MDS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN SEP 13 08:25:02 UTC 2026
NO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF SUN SEP 13 08:25:02 UTC
2026.
========================================
SPC SEP 13, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 1200Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC, AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
TEND TO LAG THE COLD FRONT, BUT SOME STRENGTHENING OF FLOW IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
MODERATE BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CINH
WEAKENS, AND WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EVENTUALLY
EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES, WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST ASCENT MAY TEND TO
LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY REGARDING THE
MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, WITH THE 00Z HRRR/RRFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING ORGANIZED CONVECTION (AND POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS), WHILE OTHER HREF GUIDANCE DEPICTS GENERALLY WEAK
CONVECTION.
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS. IF LATER OBSERVATIONAL AND GUIDANCE TRENDS SUPPORT
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SCENARIO, THEN GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
...CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH, THOUGH A NARROW ZONE OF MODERATE BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP
BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHEAST WY AND THE NE
PANHANDLE. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT STORM
ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL.
WHILE ANY DIURNAL STORMS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING,
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD TONIGHT. MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT
WITH THE INITIAL ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN SD,
THOUGH STORM INTERFERENCE AND WEAKENING BUOYANCY MAY TEND TO LIMIT
THE LONGEVITY AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE THREAT.
...PARTS OF MT INTO NORTHWEST ND...
INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
ACROSS MT, WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY
WEAK BUOYANCY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL, THOUGH SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..DEAN/HALBERT.. 09/13/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 13, 2026 0600 UTC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0600Z DAY 2 OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA...
...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, AND PERHAPS A SMALL
ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF STORMS, MAY IMPACT PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IOWA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM PRIOR RUNS
CONCERNING THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TO THE EAST OF A STILL FAIRLY PROMINENT MID-LEVEL HIGH SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, A
NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIG THROUGH
MULTIPLE BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST AND HIGHER
LATITUDES OF NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
AS THIS OCCURS, AND DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER RIDGING BECOMES
INCREASINGLY PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THROUGH
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTH MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD, A NOTABLE REMNANT
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE MORE
RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES, ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS, AND CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. GREAT PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION.
WHILE AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE EVOLVING WARM SECTOR REMAINS
MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WEAK, ELEVATED CONVECTION
MAY OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND MIDDLE TO LOWER
MISSOURI THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST AND ADJACENT GREAT LAKES REGION,
REINFORCING A RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER TO THE NORTH OF
A STALLED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
THROUGH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RETREAT NORTHWARD.
...SOUTHERN MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
THERE DOES APPEAR A GENERAL CONSENSUS WITHIN/AMONG THE MODEL OUTPUT
THAT THE NORTHWARD RETREATING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY REACH
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES, ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA
THROUGH IOWA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CORRIDOR OF
DESTABILIZATION SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PARTICULARLY WHERE THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THIS FRONT, ACROSS THE EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IOWA VICINITY, AT LEAST SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A SCENARIO WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
THE EVOLUTION OF AN ISOLATED INTENSE SUPERCELL INTO SMALL UPSCALE
GROWING CLUSTER FOR A PERIOD LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
..KERR.. 09/13/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 13, 2026 0730 UTC DAY 3 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
SPC 0730Z DAY 3 OUTLOOK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING IN A CORRIDOR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT A CORRIDOR SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
...DISCUSSION...
A DEAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, GENERALLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHWESTERN
ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN QUEBEC BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. IN
THE WAKE OF THE CYCLONE, AN INITIAL LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS MAY MAKE SOME SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION, BEFORE
STALLING AND PERHAPS RETREATING NORTHWARD BENEATH THE BUILDING
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF PROMINENT RIDGING STILL CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS VARIANCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE CONCERNING THIS
LATTER DEVELOPMENT, AND THE EVOLUTION OF DIGGING UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND PACIFIC
COAST.
...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
MAINLY WHERE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REMAIN SUPPRESSED, PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES, COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL ZONE, A CORRIDOR OF INCREASING, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID TO LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT THE
EVOLUTION OF MODERATE MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000+
J/KG, NEAR THE MODEST SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES,
WHICH MAY STILL INCLUDE SPEEDS OF 30+ KTS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER.
A WARM LAYER IN MID/UPPER LEVELS MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS LARGE HAIL,
BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES OF
POTENTIAL WET-BULB TEMPERATURES IN LOWER/MID-LEVELS COULD CONTRIBUTE
TO A FEW DOWNBURSTS AND DEVELOPING COLD POOLS WITH A FEW STRONG
GUSTS INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
..KERR.. 09/13/2026
READ MORE
========================================
SPC SEP 13, 2026 DAY 4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE INITIALLY
PROMINENT SOUTHEASTERN MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE
LOWER LATITUDES LATE THIS COMING WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT THE EVOLVING WESTERLIES ACROSS THE U.S.
WILL REMAIN MODEST TO WEAK, WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. WHILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME CONTINUING
POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR
A LINGERING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
ON WEDNESDAY, IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL DIMINISH THEREAFTER, WITH
GENERALLY NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL INTO AND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH A 65-70 KT JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY, RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
BASIN INTO THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA.
...GREAT BASIN INTO PORTIONS OF IDAHO AND MONTANA...
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS OWING TO DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING BENEATH
THE STRONG UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD 15-20 MPH WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA INTO FAR WESTERN UTAH, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD REACH AS LOW AS 10-15% WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
WHILE THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WILL POSSESS
WESTERLY WINDS WITH 15-20% RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WITH ERCS APPROACHING
THE 80TH ANNUAL PERCENTILES, AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, AND LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE TERRAIN INDUCED WIND GUSTS ARE FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH
INTO THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA,
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 MPH (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS) ARE
ANTICIPATED TO OVERLAP WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF AROUND 15%. WHILE
THERE APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL CORRIDOR FOR CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONCERNS, THEY OVERLAP WITH MORE MODEST FUELS AND A LOWER DENSITY
FUELSCAPE.
..HALBERT.. 09/13/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AS
STRONG JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PROGRESSES FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL REACH WELL INTO CRITICAL CRITERIA FOR WIND AND RH,
BUT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION AND A SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE FUELSCAPE
WILL GENERALLY TEMPER THE FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
...CENTRAL AND EASTERN WYOMING INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS...
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 25-30 MPH ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, WITH DAYTIME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10-15%. THOUGH FUELS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
RECEPTIVENESS TO IGNITION AND SPREAD, A GENERALLY LOW-DENSITY
FUELSCAPE AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WILL SERVE TO REDUCE OVERALL
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS. FURTHER NORTH, WINDS OF 30-35 MPH ARE
FORECAST WITH THE POSTFRONTAL AIRMASS THAT WILL HAVE GENERALLY
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE 20% AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. GIVEN
THE MENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES, THE AREA AND MAGNITUDE OF FIRE-WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS MAY CHANGE IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
..HALBERT.. 09/13/2026
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
READ MORE
========================================
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