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HP2DFA > STORM 11.09.26 05:42l 31 Lines 2650 Bytes #57 (0) @ WW
BID : 1841_HP2DFA
Subj: 7 DAY TROPICAL, PACIFIC OUTLOOK C. AMERICA SEP11
Path: DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OE6XPE<DB0RKB<DK0WUE<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<VE3CGR<LU9DCE<
PY2BIL<HP2DFA
Sent: 260911/0054Z 1841@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
The 7-day tropical outlook for [Central America](https://www.google.com/search?kgmid=/m/01tzh) is defined by a striking contrast: an eerily quiet Atlantic/Caribbean basin juxtaposed against a highly active Eastern Pacific, driven by a powerful, strengthening El Niño. While no direct tropical cyclone threats are imminent for the mainland over the next week, a heavy influx of moisture from the Monsoonal Trough will keep regional weather highly unstable. [1, 2]
The official [NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php) outlook details the split dynamics:
## 🌊 Atlantic & Caribbean Basin: Exceptionally Quiet
*
* 7-Day Cyclone Potential: 0aNo development expected). [3]
* Current Status: Despite being the statistical peak week of the hurricane season, the Atlantic map remains completely blank with zero active threats or tropical depressions forecast to form near Central America over the next 7 days. [4, 5, 6]
* The Driver: A robust [El Niño](https://www.google.com/search?q=El Niño&kgmid=/g/120ldl7m) is generating severe vertical wind shear across the Caribbean Sea, successfully tearing apart tropical waves and suppressing cyclogenesis. [7, 8]
*
## â˜€ï¸ Eastern Pacific Basin: Highly Active (Farthest Offshore)
*
* Active Systems: The NHC is actively issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Lowell (near Hawaii) and Tropical Storm Norbert. [9]
* 7-Day Cyclone Potential: A low-pressure area is forecast to form well southwest of Mexico's Baja Peninsula late this weekend with a high (80échance of tropical depression formation early next week. [10]
* Mainland Impact: All current and developing Pacific systems are moving westward, away from Central America. There is no direct threat of a Pacific landfall for the istmo. [1, 11, 12]
*
## â›ˆï¸ Central American Mainland Impact (Next 7 Days)
Even without an organized hurricane or tropical storm, the proximity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Central American Gyre will produce harsh local weather: [2, 13]
*
* Daily Patterns: Expect typical wet-season instability. Clear, humid mornings with intense solar radiation will be followed by severe afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
* Regional Risks: Deep tropical moisture pulled from both oceans will keep regional soils fully saturated. Local emergency management agencies maintain watches for flash flooding, lightning hazards, and mudslides along major mountain passes. [2]
*
Sistema de Monitoreo de Alertas Meteorologicas de Panama
PCARA - Grupo Digital C4FM Panama
www.pcara.net - www.c4fmpanama.org
HP2DFA@HP2DFA.COL.PA.CEAM
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