DB0FFL

HP2DFA > STORM    14.09.26 03:04l 44 Lines 2658 Bytes #60 (0) @ WW
BID : 1954_HP2DFA
Read: OE5RCO
Subj: 7 DAY TROPICAL & PACIFIC OUTLOOK C.AMERICA SEP13
Path: DB0FFL<OE2XZR<DB0FHN<DB0RES<GB7CAM<VE3KPG<N2MH4<GB7BED<EI2GYB<PY2BIL<
      HP2DFA
Sent: 260913/2321Z 1954@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24

For the week of **September 13–20, 2026**, official guidance from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and regional meteorological agencies indicates an active September pattern across the Central American region.

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### Key Tropical Systems & Basins

* **Eastern Pacific Basin:**
* **Active Cyclones:** Tropical Storm Norbert and Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are active well offshore in the East Pacific, moving west-northwest away from the Central American coastline.
* **Disturbance (EP97):** Located several hundred miles southwest of Mexico/Baja Peninsula with a **high (90é7-day formation chance**. It is tracking westward into open waters and poses no direct landfall threat to Central America.
* **Nearshore Conditions:** Easterly wind pulses across the Papagayo region (Costa Rica/Nicaragua) and moderate night-to-morning northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will create localized rough seas.


* **Caribbean Sea & Atlantic Basin:**
* **Direct Cyclonic Threat:** No active tropical cyclones or high-probability genesis areas are currently targeting the SW Caribbean or Central American coastline.
* **Subtropical Atlantic System:** A disturbance in the central subtropical Atlantic has a low (20é7-day development chance, tracking away toward the open ocean.



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### 7-Day Regional Impacts for Central America

Even without a direct tropical cyclone landfall, the interaction between easterly tropical waves and the **Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)** will maintain typical mid-September wet season conditions across the region:

| Sub-Region | Primary Weather Drivers | 7-Day Forecast & Hazards |
| --- | --- | --- |
| **Pacific Slope** *(Guatemala to Panama)* | ITCZ moisture pull, afternoon convection | Heavy vespertino/nighttime thunderstorms; urban flash flooding risk. |
| **Central Mountain Spine** *(Cordillera)* | Orograpic lift, high soil moisture saturation | Moderate to heavy daily rain; high risk of **landslides and mudslides**. |
| **Caribbean Slope** *(Bocas, Colón, Mosquitia)* | Tropical waves, trade-wind convergence | Frequent morning showers, localized coastal thunderstorms. |

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### Marine & Safety Summary

1. **Pacific Marine:** Coastal waters will experience moderate wave action with localized rough seas in wind-gap regions (Papagayo and Gulf of Panama) during periods of heavy convective gusts.
2. **Hydrological Hazards:** Due to pre-existing soil saturation, river basins across Western Panama (Chiriquí, Ngäbe-Buglé), Costa Rica (Pacific Slope), and Guatemala remain under high alert for sudden river swellings and landslips.




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